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Identifying the climate sensitivity of infectious diseases: a conceptual framework

Alcayna, Tilly et al.
The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 0, Issue 0, 101291

Infectious diseases pose a substantial threat to public health, affecting billions and straining health-care systems worldwide. There is growing concern over how anthropogenic climate change might aggravate the global burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. In this Personal View, we propose a framework for understanding what makes an infectious disease climate-sensitive.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101291

Integrating anticipatory action in disease outbreak preparedness and response in the humanitarian sector

Tilly Alcayna et al.
BMJ Global Health 2025;10:e017721

In the humanitarian sector, anticipatory action entails acting ahead of predicted hazardous events to prevent or mitigate potential impacts and needs. It leverages early warnings to bridge preparedness and response, with a core principle being the provision of ex-ante emergency funding for preagreed early actions. Traditionally applied to extreme climatic events, there is growing interest in integrating anticipatory action into disease outbreak preparedness and response. We present an analytical framework for trigger development for climate-sensitive infectious disease outbreaks based on a review of existing and emerging practices from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, United Nations agencies and Médecins Sans Frontières since 2014. We propose that, depending on data availability, there are four broad approaches for trigger development.

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017721

Effects of mosquito-proofing storm drains on adult and larval mosquito abundance: Protocol of the IDAlErt storm drAin randomiSed controlled trial (IDEAS)

Marina Treskova et al.
MethodsX, Volume 14, 2025, 103102

Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, vectors of diseases like dengue and West Nile, breed in urban storm drains with stagnant water, a problem that may worsen in Europe due to climate change. To address this, the Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB) tested structural drain modifications in a randomised controlled trial, assigning 44 drains to either mosquito-proofing or no change and monitoring them weekly from June to November 2023. Outcomes focused on adult mosquito counts and presence of adults and larvae, with results to be analysed using statistical models to assess effectiveness and guide possible city-wide adoption.

DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2024.103102

Strengthening resilience to emerging vector-borne diseases in Europe: lessons learnt from countries facing endemic transmission

Charnley, Gina E.C. et al.
The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 53, 101271

Emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are a major public health concern worldwide. Climate change, environmental degradation and globalisation have led to an expansion in the range of many vectors and an erosion of transmission barriers, increasing human exposure to new pathogens and the risk for emerging VBD outbreaks. Europe is potentially underprepared for the increasing threat of VBDs, due to attention and funding being diverted to other public health priorities. Proactive, rather than reactive, prevention and control approaches can greatly reduce the socio-economic toll of VBDs. Endemic countries globally have decades of experience in controlling VBDs, and Europe has much to learn from this knowledge. Here, we advocate for the expansion of transdisciplinary knowledge-sharing partnerships, to co-create proactive measures against VBDs. We present the experiences and expertise of our diverse international team and explore how an array of interventions can be applied and adapted to the European context.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101271

Impact of climate and Aedes albopictus establishment on dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Europe: a time-to-event analysis

Farooq, Zia et al. – The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 9, Issue 5, e374 – e383

The rapid spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) poses a notable public health threat in Europe due to its ability to transmit tropical diseases such as dengue and chikungunya. This study aims to quantify the underlying drivers facilitating and accelerating Europe’s transition from sporadic arbovirus outbreaks to Aedes-borne disease endemicity, focusing on dengue and chikungunya outbreaks.

DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00059-2

Modelling the impact of climate and the environment on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Lyme borreliosis in Germany

Batista, Martín Lotto et al.
eBioMedicine, Volume 115, 105701

This study used spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling to analyze the impact of climate and environmental factors on Lyme borreliosis (LB) dynamics in Germany. The research found that precipitation, temperature, green spaces, and forest cover positively influenced LB incidence, while human population density had a negative impact. The study also identified increasing trends in LB risk, particularly in northern regions, and highlighted the role of climate in shaping LB distribution and transmission.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2025.105701

Uncovering temperature sensitivity of West Nile virus transmission: Novel computational approaches to mosquito-pathogen trait responses

Heidecke et al. – PLOS Computational Biology, Volume 19, e1012866

This study introduces a computational framework to assess temperature sensitivity in mosquito-pathogen interactions, focusing on West Nile virus (WNV). Using experimental data across 15 mosquito species, the authors estimate temperature response functions for key traits influencing WNV transmission. They find an optimal transmission temperature around 24°C for Culex species and highlight key areas for future research to improve transmission models under climate change.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012866

Harmonizing Multisource Data to Inform Vector-Borne Disease Risk Management Strategies

Lowe R, Codeço CT.
Annu Rev Entomol. 2025 Jan;70(1):337-358.

In the last few decades, we have witnessed the emergence of new vector-borne diseases (VBDs), the globalization of endemic VBDs, and the urbanization of previously rural VBDs. Data harmonization forms the basis of robust decision-support systems designed to protect at-risk communities from VBD threats. Strong interdisciplinary partnerships, protocols, digital infrastructure, and capacity-building initiatives are essential for facilitating the coproduction of robust multisource data sets. This review provides a foundation for researchers and practitioners embarking on data harmonization efforts to (a) better understand the links among environmental degradation, climate change, socioeconomic inequalities, and VBD risk; (b) conduct risk assessments, health impact attribution, and projection studies; and (c) develop robust early warning and response systems. We draw upon best practices in harmonizing data for two well-studied VBDs, dengue and malaria, and provide recommendations for the evolution of research and digital technology to improve data harmonization for VBD risk management.

DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ento-040124-015101

Short-term effect of temperature and precipitation on the incidence of West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease in Europe: a multi-country case-crossover analysis

Moirano, Giovenale et al. – The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 48, 101149

In recent years, Europe has experienced several outbreaks of West Nile Virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne pathogen. This study aims to quantify the impact of weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation on human cases of West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease (WNND), to assess the feasibility of climate-informed early warning systems for severe forms of WNV infection.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.101149

Heat stress and the labour force

Dasgupta, S., Robinson, E.J.Z., Shayegh, S. et al. – Nat Rev Earth Environ 5, 859–872,

Heat stress affects the health of workers through physiological and behavioural responses, in turn, affecting the labour force through impacts on labour supply, labour productivity and labour capacity. In this Review, we explore the extent to which heat stress affects the labour force and discuss the corresponding occupational health and economic impacts. DOI: 10.1038/s43017-024-00606-1

The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: facing record-breaking threats from delayed action

Marina Romanello, Maria Walawender, Shih-Che Hsu, Annalyse Moskeland, Yasna Palmeiro-Silva, Daniel Scamman et al. – The Lancet Public Health, Volume 9, Issue 7, November 2024

The 2024 Lancet Countdown report, produced by 122 researchers from UN agencies and academic institutions, delivers the most concerning findings in eight years of monitoring the health–climate nexus. Despite hopes from the 2015 Paris Agreement, global warming has nearly reached the 1.5°C limit, with record surface temperatures in 2023 and 2024 driving escalating risks to lives and livelihoods worldwide.

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01822-1

Residual Longevity of Recaptured Sterile Mosquitoes as a Tool to Understand Field Performance and Reveal Quality.

Balatsos, G et al. – Insects 2024, 15, 826

The current study focused on understanding the longevity and frailty of sterile, non-sterile, and wild male mosquitoes subjected to different treatments, using the novel captive cohort method. Key findings include that marking mosquitoes, following IAEA protocols, had an insignificant effect on longevity under controlled conditions, and that sterilization had no negative effect on male longevity.

DOI: 10.3390/insects15110826

Mitigating the Threat of Invasive Mosquito Species Expansion: A Comprehensive Entomological Surveillance Study on Kastellorizo, a Remote Greek Island

Bisia, M. et al. – Insects 2024, 15, 724

This paper details a study on Kastellorizo island that tracked mosquito species, including the invasive Asian tiger mosquito, using KAP surveys, mosquito traps, and species identification to assess mosquito prevalence and community preparedness. The research revealed the presence of disease-carrying mosquito species and highlighted the need for increased public education and community involvement in mosquito monitoring to develop effective control strategies in isolated areas.

DOI: 10.3390/insects15090724

Climate change, malaria and neglected tropical diseases: a scoping review

Petra Klepac, et al.
Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Volume 118, Issue 9, September 2024, Pages 561–579

A comprehensive review of studies published from January 2010 to October 2023 found that the effects of climate change on malaria and 20 neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are highly variable, evolving over time, and difficult to predict globally. Of 511 eligible papers, malaria, dengue, and chikungunya were most frequently studied, while other NTDs were relatively neglected. Only a minority of studies addressed mitigation (34%) or adaptation (5%) strategies, and research was disproportionately focused on countries with lower disease burden and higher healthcare quality, leaving major gaps for high-burden, low-access regions, such as East Africa for leishmaniasis. Overall, coordinated and standardized modelling efforts are urgently needed to clarify how climate change will directly and indirectly affect these diseases worldwide.

DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trae026

Evolutionary dynamics of the successful expansion of pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus ST3 in Latin America

Campbell, A.M. et al. – Nature Communications 15, 7828

The evolutionary mechanisms behind global pathogen strain expansions are not well understood, but the spread of the Vibrio parahaemolyticus clone (VpST3) in Latin America offers key insights. This study found that the VpST3 strain was introduced in Latin America earlier than previously thought, adapting successfully to local marine climates through genetic changes that improved resilience and environmental fitness. These findings reveal how this marine pathogen can expand globally by evolving to thrive in distinct climate conditions.

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52159-y

Human–Environment Interactions Shape Mosquito Seasonal Population Dynamics

Blanco-Sierra, L. et al. – Insects 2024, 15(7), 527

This study investigates the factors influencing local populations of Aedes albopictus, a highly invasive mosquito species known for its role in spreading vector-borne diseases. Aimed at enhancing vector control effectiveness, the research focused on understanding the interplay between meteorological elements, human activity, and pest management efforts in determining mosquito abundance at local scales. 

DOI: 10.3390/insects15070527 

A climatic suitability indicator to support Leishmania infantum surveillance in Europe: a modelling study

A climatic suitability indicator to support Leishmania infantum surveillance in Europe: a modelling study Carvalho, Bruno M. et al. – The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 43, 100971

Leishmaniases are neglected diseases transmitted by sand flies. They disproportionately affect vulnerable groups globally. Understanding the relationship between climate and disease transmission allows the development of relevant decision-support tools for public health policy and surveillance. The aim of this modelling study was to develop an indicator that tracks climatic suitability for Leishmania infantum transmission in Europe at the subnational level.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.100971

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Kim Robin van Daalen et al. – The Lancet Public Health, Volume 9, Issue 7

In 2023, record-breaking temperatures were recorded globally, with Europe warming at twice the global average, posing severe health risks. The Lancet Countdown in Europe, established in 2021, tracks health impacts of climate change to push for urgent climate-responsive actions. The 2023 report, now expanded to 42 indicators, highlights the worsening health impacts, Europe’s delayed climate action, and emphasizes the need to address inequality and justice in climate responsibility and health risks.

DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00055-0

The global health community at international climate change negotiations

Kim Robin van Daalen et al.
BMJ Global Health 2024;9:e015292

With 2023 shattering climate records across the world following decades of unprecedented warming, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of Parties 28 (UNFCCC COP28) in Dubai was the first UN climate change conference to feature an official ‘Health Day’ and witnessed the largest-ever turnout of the global health community. The threat of climate change to human well-being and planetary health has previously received little attention at the annual COPs, despite ever-growing scientific evidence warning of the increasing health dangers.

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015292

European Climate Risk Assessment: Storyline on Infectious diseases – Chapter 14

Shouro Dasgupta et al.
EEA Report 01/2024
Chapter 14

On a global scale, one of the biggest threats to human health from climate change is the increase in climate-sensitive infectious diseases, driven by rising temperatures, droughts and water scarcity, torrential rains, floods and warming oceans, among other factors. 58% of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have at some point been aggravated by climate hazards. The impacts on Europe to date have been limited, but there is growing evidence that vector-borne, foodborne and waterborne diseases will increase in the coming decades.

European Climate Risk Assessment: Food production and food security – chapter 6

Frank Dentener et al.
EEA Report 01/2024
Chapter 6

Food production in Europe is intricately influenced by numerous climatic and non climatic factors, including droughts, heatwaves, biodiversity loss and socio-economic dynamics (Bednar-Friedl et al., 2022; Bezner Kerr et al., 2022). Climate change reshapes the conditions suitable for crop production, intensifies risks for weather-related crop/food losses, causes the introduction and establishment of new plant pests, increases the physical and biological risks to animal production systems and shifts the food web and species abundances relevant for fisheries.

Field evaluation of an automated mosquito surveillance system which classifies Aedes and Culex mosquitoes by genus and sex

Field evaluation of an automated mosquito surveillance system which classifies Aedes and Culex mosquitoes by genus and sex
González-Pérez MI et al. – Parasit Vectors. 2024 Mar 1;17(1):97

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major concern for public and veterinary health authorities, highlighting the importance of effective vector surveillance and control programs. Traditional surveillance methods are labor-intensive and do not provide high temporal resolution, which may hinder a full assessment of the risk of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. Emerging technologies for automated remote mosquito monitoring have the potential to address these limitations; however, few studies have tested the performance of such systems in the field.

DOI: 10.1186/s13071-024-06177

The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study

Joan Ballester et al. – Lancet Regional Health Europe
This paper highlights the use of weekly and monthly data as a viable alternative to daily health records in estimating temperature-related mortality, particularly when access to daily data is restricted. The findings show that while weekly models slightly underestimate cold and heat-related deaths, especially during extreme events, they still provide reliable estimates and can be useful for research and policy-making.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100779

The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms

Marina Romanello et al. – The Lancet

The Lancet Countdown is an international research collaboration that independently monitors the evolving impacts of climate change on health, and the emerging health opportunities of climate action. In its eighth iteration, this 2023 report draws on the expertise of 114 scientists and health practitioners from 52 research institutions and UN agencies worldwide to provide its most comprehensive assessment yet.

DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01859-7

Inequality and growth impacts of climate change—insights from South Africa

Shouro Dasgupta, Johannes Emmerling, Soheil Shayegh – Environmental Research Letters

This article examines the effects of climate change on economic inequality and growth in South Africa. It highlights the uneven burden climate change places on vulnerable populations and suggests how policy interventions can mitigate these impacts to promote equitable and sustainable growth.

DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0448

Understanding the climate change impact on health

Peter Hoffmann et al.
Open Access Government July 2023, pp.456-457

Scientists at the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) help society to prepare for climate change impacts on health in a multi-faceted approach
Health becomes a pressing topic since the pandemic, while climate change and other crisis continue to rise. Therefore, it is important to look at the different impacts in climate change and health for the vulnerable groups.

DOI: 10.56367/OAG-039-9508

Approaching unsafe limits: climate-related health inequities within and beyond Europe

Kim R. van Daalen et al. – The Lancet Regional Health. Europe, Vol 31, Iss , Pp 100683- (2023)

The article from The Lancet Regional Health – Europe presents a new framework to tackle climate-sensitive infectious diseases in Europe. It emphasizes the need for decision-support tools and policy-relevant indicators to track and respond to climate-induced health risks. The framework, developed under the IDAlert project, integrates a One Health approach, connecting human, animal, and environmental health for better disease monitoring, resilience, and preparedness across sectors​.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100683

Chapter 12 Early warning systems for vector-borne diseases: engagement, methods and implementation

Emilie Finch et al. – Planetary health approaches to understand and control vector-borne diseases | Chapter 12

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) cause over 700,000 deaths yearly, worsened by climate change and urbanization. Climate-informed early warning systems (EWS) use climate data to predict outbreaks, enabling faster public health responses. Despite their success in disaster risk reduction, EWS are underused in health, with few operational tools available.

DOI: 10.3920/9789004688650_014

Towards a leptospirosis early warning system in northeastern Argentina

Lotto Batista M et al. – J. Roy. Soc. Interface

This study demonstrates that hydrometeorological indicators, including El Niño, precipitation, and river height, are strong predictors of leptospirosis outbreaks in northeastern Argentina. By using a Bayesian modelling framework, the researchers found that climate-driven models accurately detected 89% of outbreaks, suggesting that such tools could effectively contribute to an early warning system for leptospirosis in the region.

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0069

West Nile virus eco-epidemiology and climate change

Julian Heidecke; Andrea Lavarello Schettini; Joacim Rocklöv – Crossref

This review explores WNV’s eco-epidemiology, the role of modeling in knowledge generation, and the importance of a One Health approach for better surveillance and policy development.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000129

The role of global reanalyses in climate services for health: Insights from the Lancet Countdown

Claudia Di Napoli et al. – Meteorological Applications

This article highlights the need for climate-smart decisions in public health due to extreme weather events. The Lancet Countdown system uses reanalysis datasets like ERA5 to track global climate-related health impacts, such as heatwaves and disease transmission, and provides indicators to measure these effects. Public health professionals should collaborate to refine these datasets for better health outcomes.

DOI: 10.1002/met.2122

European projections of West Nile virus transmission under climate change scenarios

Zia Farooq et al. – One Health, Vol 16, Iss , Pp 100509- (2023), 16 February 2023
West Nile virus (WNV) risk in Europe is expected to rise significantly due to climate change. Projections show up to a 5-fold increase in outbreaks by 2040-60, with affected areas growing from 15% to 23-30%, putting up to 244 million people at risk. Western Europe faces the highest risk, driven by climate conditions favorable for WNV transmission, necessitating stronger public health measures.

DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2023.100509

The labour force in a changing climate: Research and policy needs

Shouro Dasgupta; Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson – Crossref

This article examines the impacts of climate change on population displacement and human health. It highlights how rising temperatures and extreme weather events exacerbate health risks, particularly for vulnerable populations.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000131

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