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Decision support

Integrating anticipatory action in disease outbreak preparedness and response in the humanitarian sector

Tilly Alcayna et al.
BMJ Global Health 2025;10:e017721

In the humanitarian sector, anticipatory action entails acting ahead of predicted hazardous events to prevent or mitigate potential impacts and needs. It leverages early warnings to bridge preparedness and response, with a core principle being the provision of ex-ante emergency funding for preagreed early actions. Traditionally applied to extreme climatic events, there is growing interest in integrating anticipatory action into disease outbreak preparedness and response. We present an analytical framework for trigger development for climate-sensitive infectious disease outbreaks based on a review of existing and emerging practices from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, United Nations agencies and Médecins Sans Frontières since 2014. We propose that, depending on data availability, there are four broad approaches for trigger development.

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017721

Effects of mosquito-proofing storm drains on adult and larval mosquito abundance: Protocol of the IDAlErt storm drAin randomiSed controlled trial (IDEAS)

Marina Treskova et al.
MethodsX, Volume 14, 2025, 103102

Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, vectors of diseases like dengue and West Nile, breed in urban storm drains with stagnant water, a problem that may worsen in Europe due to climate change. To address this, the Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB) tested structural drain modifications in a randomised controlled trial, assigning 44 drains to either mosquito-proofing or no change and monitoring them weekly from June to November 2023. Outcomes focused on adult mosquito counts and presence of adults and larvae, with results to be analysed using statistical models to assess effectiveness and guide possible city-wide adoption.

DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2024.103102

Strengthening resilience to emerging vector-borne diseases in Europe: lessons learnt from countries facing endemic transmission

Charnley, Gina E.C. et al.
The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 53, 101271

Emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are a major public health concern worldwide. Climate change, environmental degradation and globalisation have led to an expansion in the range of many vectors and an erosion of transmission barriers, increasing human exposure to new pathogens and the risk for emerging VBD outbreaks. Europe is potentially underprepared for the increasing threat of VBDs, due to attention and funding being diverted to other public health priorities. Proactive, rather than reactive, prevention and control approaches can greatly reduce the socio-economic toll of VBDs. Endemic countries globally have decades of experience in controlling VBDs, and Europe has much to learn from this knowledge. Here, we advocate for the expansion of transdisciplinary knowledge-sharing partnerships, to co-create proactive measures against VBDs. We present the experiences and expertise of our diverse international team and explore how an array of interventions can be applied and adapted to the European context.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101271

Harmonizing Multisource Data to Inform Vector-Borne Disease Risk Management Strategies

Lowe R, Codeço CT.
Annu Rev Entomol. 2025 Jan;70(1):337-358.

In the last few decades, we have witnessed the emergence of new vector-borne diseases (VBDs), the globalization of endemic VBDs, and the urbanization of previously rural VBDs. Data harmonization forms the basis of robust decision-support systems designed to protect at-risk communities from VBD threats. Strong interdisciplinary partnerships, protocols, digital infrastructure, and capacity-building initiatives are essential for facilitating the coproduction of robust multisource data sets. This review provides a foundation for researchers and practitioners embarking on data harmonization efforts to (a) better understand the links among environmental degradation, climate change, socioeconomic inequalities, and VBD risk; (b) conduct risk assessments, health impact attribution, and projection studies; and (c) develop robust early warning and response systems. We draw upon best practices in harmonizing data for two well-studied VBDs, dengue and malaria, and provide recommendations for the evolution of research and digital technology to improve data harmonization for VBD risk management.

DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ento-040124-015101

Short-term effect of temperature and precipitation on the incidence of West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease in Europe: a multi-country case-crossover analysis

Moirano, Giovenale et al. – The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 48, 101149

In recent years, Europe has experienced several outbreaks of West Nile Virus (WNV), a mosquito-borne pathogen. This study aims to quantify the impact of weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation on human cases of West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease (WNND), to assess the feasibility of climate-informed early warning systems for severe forms of WNV infection.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.101149

A climatic suitability indicator to support Leishmania infantum surveillance in Europe: a modelling study

A climatic suitability indicator to support Leishmania infantum surveillance in Europe: a modelling study Carvalho, Bruno M. et al. – The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 43, 100971

Leishmaniases are neglected diseases transmitted by sand flies. They disproportionately affect vulnerable groups globally. Understanding the relationship between climate and disease transmission allows the development of relevant decision-support tools for public health policy and surveillance. The aim of this modelling study was to develop an indicator that tracks climatic suitability for Leishmania infantum transmission in Europe at the subnational level.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2024.100971

Field evaluation of an automated mosquito surveillance system which classifies Aedes and Culex mosquitoes by genus and sex

Field evaluation of an automated mosquito surveillance system which classifies Aedes and Culex mosquitoes by genus and sex
González-Pérez MI et al. – Parasit Vectors. 2024 Mar 1;17(1):97

Mosquito-borne diseases are a major concern for public and veterinary health authorities, highlighting the importance of effective vector surveillance and control programs. Traditional surveillance methods are labor-intensive and do not provide high temporal resolution, which may hinder a full assessment of the risk of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. Emerging technologies for automated remote mosquito monitoring have the potential to address these limitations; however, few studies have tested the performance of such systems in the field.

DOI: 10.1186/s13071-024-06177

The effect of temporal data aggregation to assess the impact of changing temperatures in Europe: an epidemiological modelling study

Joan Ballester et al. – Lancet Regional Health Europe
This paper highlights the use of weekly and monthly data as a viable alternative to daily health records in estimating temperature-related mortality, particularly when access to daily data is restricted. The findings show that while weekly models slightly underestimate cold and heat-related deaths, especially during extreme events, they still provide reliable estimates and can be useful for research and policy-making.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100779

Chapter 12 Early warning systems for vector-borne diseases: engagement, methods and implementation

Emilie Finch et al. – Planetary health approaches to understand and control vector-borne diseases | Chapter 12

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) cause over 700,000 deaths yearly, worsened by climate change and urbanization. Climate-informed early warning systems (EWS) use climate data to predict outbreaks, enabling faster public health responses. Despite their success in disaster risk reduction, EWS are underused in health, with few operational tools available.

DOI: 10.3920/9789004688650_014

Towards a leptospirosis early warning system in northeastern Argentina

Lotto Batista M et al. – J. Roy. Soc. Interface

This study demonstrates that hydrometeorological indicators, including El Niño, precipitation, and river height, are strong predictors of leptospirosis outbreaks in northeastern Argentina. By using a Bayesian modelling framework, the researchers found that climate-driven models accurately detected 89% of outbreaks, suggesting that such tools could effectively contribute to an early warning system for leptospirosis in the region.

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2023.0069

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