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Integrating anticipatory action in disease outbreak preparedness and response in the humanitarian sector

Tilly Alcayna et al.
BMJ Global Health 2025;10:e017721

In the humanitarian sector, anticipatory action entails acting ahead of predicted hazardous events to prevent or mitigate potential impacts and needs. It leverages early warnings to bridge preparedness and response, with a core principle being the provision of ex-ante emergency funding for preagreed early actions. Traditionally applied to extreme climatic events, there is growing interest in integrating anticipatory action into disease outbreak preparedness and response. We present an analytical framework for trigger development for climate-sensitive infectious disease outbreaks based on a review of existing and emerging practices from the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, United Nations agencies and Médecins Sans Frontières since 2014. We propose that, depending on data availability, there are four broad approaches for trigger development.

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017721

Effects of mosquito-proofing storm drains on adult and larval mosquito abundance: Protocol of the IDAlErt storm drAin randomiSed controlled trial (IDEAS)

Marina Treskova et al.
MethodsX, Volume 14, 2025, 103102

Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, vectors of diseases like dengue and West Nile, breed in urban storm drains with stagnant water, a problem that may worsen in Europe due to climate change. To address this, the Agència de Salut Pública de Barcelona (ASPB) tested structural drain modifications in a randomised controlled trial, assigning 44 drains to either mosquito-proofing or no change and monitoring them weekly from June to November 2023. Outcomes focused on adult mosquito counts and presence of adults and larvae, with results to be analysed using statistical models to assess effectiveness and guide possible city-wide adoption.

DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2024.103102

Strengthening resilience to emerging vector-borne diseases in Europe: lessons learnt from countries facing endemic transmission

Charnley, Gina E.C. et al.
The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, Volume 53, 101271

Emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are a major public health concern worldwide. Climate change, environmental degradation and globalisation have led to an expansion in the range of many vectors and an erosion of transmission barriers, increasing human exposure to new pathogens and the risk for emerging VBD outbreaks. Europe is potentially underprepared for the increasing threat of VBDs, due to attention and funding being diverted to other public health priorities. Proactive, rather than reactive, prevention and control approaches can greatly reduce the socio-economic toll of VBDs. Endemic countries globally have decades of experience in controlling VBDs, and Europe has much to learn from this knowledge. Here, we advocate for the expansion of transdisciplinary knowledge-sharing partnerships, to co-create proactive measures against VBDs. We present the experiences and expertise of our diverse international team and explore how an array of interventions can be applied and adapted to the European context.

DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101271

Impact of climate and Aedes albopictus establishment on dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in Europe: a time-to-event analysis

Farooq, Zia et al. – The Lancet Planetary Health, Volume 9, Issue 5, e374 – e383

The rapid spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) poses a notable public health threat in Europe due to its ability to transmit tropical diseases such as dengue and chikungunya. This study aims to quantify the underlying drivers facilitating and accelerating Europe’s transition from sporadic arbovirus outbreaks to Aedes-borne disease endemicity, focusing on dengue and chikungunya outbreaks.

DOI: 10.1016/S2542-5196(25)00059-2

Modelling the impact of climate and the environment on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Lyme borreliosis in Germany

Batista, Martín Lotto et al.
eBioMedicine, Volume 115, 105701

This study used spatiotemporal Bayesian modeling to analyze the impact of climate and environmental factors on Lyme borreliosis (LB) dynamics in Germany. The research found that precipitation, temperature, green spaces, and forest cover positively influenced LB incidence, while human population density had a negative impact. The study also identified increasing trends in LB risk, particularly in northern regions, and highlighted the role of climate in shaping LB distribution and transmission.

DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2025.105701

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