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Developing projections of infectious disease risk under climate change


In the IDAlert project, we are developing new information for the future risks of infectious diseases under climate change. We combine the existing and newly developed indicator models from other colleagues in the project and integrate climate change scenarios. With these tools, we can develop new estimates of future risks to inform policy.  

Importantly, we can also assess these changes under different climate mitigation scenarios, as well as adaptation actions taken on the ground in urban areas. The scales at which we work range from the European scale, where we work at administrative units according to the NUTS system, but also at the case study level in the different regions included in the project. 

The overall goal of the IDAlert project is to develop novel methods and tools to better investigate current and future climate-sensitive infectious diseases. My work contributes by taking the tools and indicators from the forecasting and seasonal timescales to the much longer timescales of decades, until the end of the century (year 2100). 

Thus, we explicitly support the development of information related to future climate change projections, which is helpful for informing decision-makers about risks in the further future.  

These risks are clearly related to actions on health and urban development we’re taking today, as well as plans and strategies that we have for combating infectious disease risks. Such information is urgently needed to take measures that are sustainable in the long run. The project has a holistic view, integrating policies in the fields of health, water, and urban development. This is certainly innovative, as currently, these fields in the EU are insufficiently integrated. 

We organized two workshops, one in Hamburg in 2023, and one in Heidelberg in 2024, to discuss among the researchers in the project how we will develop these indicators precisely.  

We invited colleagues working on the seasonal indicator platform (EpiOutlook), as well as colleagues working on models for the climate change projection time scales. We discussed which tools and methods are ready to make such risk projections, and how we will integrate these into the indicator platform of the project.  

In addition, we looked at which case studies can also investigate future risks under climate change, including the case studies in Girona, Heidelberg, and Rotterdam. Very important was also the discussion we had on costs. We aim to estimate the costs of infectious disease impacts in the future, as well as the costs of the actions needed to adapt and reduce risks. For this, we are collecting information on the costs of health interventions, and we will apply a model to estimate macroeconomic impacts. Finally, we also discussed how we can publish the indicators and overall results, including in scientific outlets such as The Lancet Countdown

Hamburg workshop, November 2023
Heidelberg workshop, December 2024

We now have a concrete list of disease types and indicators for which we will develop these projections. Also, we have a proposal on how to technically integrate the projection indicators into the seasonal prediction platform. But we also still have a lot of work ahead in the final 2.5 years of the project. We need to deliver the indicators, report on these, and document the scenarios, data, and code. Also, we aim to integrate and document the indicators into the Digital E-Guide that will be delivered at the end of the IDAlert project.

In the coming months, we will further develop the indicators and economic research. In March, we will get together again during our General Assembly in Greece. Here, we hope to discuss progress, as well as plans and next steps for the rest of the year.

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